Skip to content
One Strike Away

Home

Mike Maddux will not return as Rangers pitching coach

In a surprising turn of events, today the Rangers announced that pitching coach Mike Maddux will not return in 2016. 

Here’s the statement from Jon Daniels:

“We made an offer to our coaches and at that point, Mike was looking around. We took the opportunity to do so, too. We did an internal review and decided that, as we talked it through, we felt like it was an opportunity for us to get better with a new voice in that role.”

Maddux has been Texas’s pitching coach since 2009, presiding over the best seven-year stretch of pitching in the history of the franchise. In that span Rangers pitchers combined to generate +133.7 fWAR — 5th in the AL during that span — including a 4.07 ERA (4.11 xFIP) in Texas’s less than ideal pitching conditions. 

It’s easy to get sentimental about this departure because, well, Mike Maddux is one of the originals. He was Texas’s pitching coach before the franchise reached its first World Series, helped develop prospects like Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz, and Matt Harrison, helped turn C.J. Wilson from a late-inning reliever to a #2 starter… he was there. For all of that. So much of what we love about the Rangers is how cohesive we perceive them to be, and Maddux was part of that stable formula. 

Thanks for everything, Mike. 

It’s Gameday

162+

That’s what every Major League team and fan base hopes for.  Six grueling, grinding months of baseball, filled with constant ups and downs, droughts and hot streaks; all in the hopes of having a chance to play a seventh month. 

Here we are. 

This is familiar territory in so many ways.  The Rangers blessed us with 162+ in 2010 and 2011 with trips to the World Series, in 2012 with a loss in the Wild Card game, then in 2013  by losing a tie-breaker play in game. 

2014 is the only year this decade that the Rangers have not played more than 162 games in the season, yet that year was so colossally bad, that it feels as if we were in a five year drought. 

This year’s team finds itself in familiar territory as well. 

According to 23 ESPN baseball analysts, the Rangers have exactly zero percent chance of defeating the Blue Jays.  Out of 23, none of them picked the Rangers to win. 

Zero out of twenty-three. 

The Rangers are currently sitting at +1400 to win the World Series, being given a 9% chance fivethirtyeight.com. 

As usual, these Rangers are underdogs and I am perfectly ok with that. 

Fortunately for us, we have been first hand witnesses to how math can be irrelevant and the game must be played on the field.   Ask David Cameron, who insists that the Rangers are a bad team and are here due to “random variance and sequencing”. 

Clean slate today. New season. 

Let’s keep on random sequencing, at this point, we are playing with house money. 

Win the damn series. 

Rangers Countdown

A quick countdown of the numbers that lead the Rangers to their unlikely American League West title: 

50- The number of games that Josh Hamilton played this season.  Broken down, this means the Rangers basically paid Hamilton $40,000 per game this season, while the Angels kicked in $460,000 for every game he played in a Rangers uniform.  In all honestly, his performance in the final series was worth $2 million. 

49- The age of Greg Maddux, who made several appearances in the Rangers dugout down the stretch.  Sure, Mike is the coach, but every time I see a young Rangers pitcher sitting next to Greg talking pitching, I feel a little better about the future. 

48- Estimated number of beers enjoyed by Mike Napoli during Sunday’s AL West celebration, which is exactly 48 higher than the number of shirts he wore while celebrating.

47- Total pitching starts from Anthony Renaudo, Ross Detwiler, Phil Klein, Nick Martinez, and Wandy Rodriguez.  For a playoff team. 

46- The jersey number previously worn by Robbie Ross Jr, who ended the season strong in Boston after being used to the point of exhaustion in Texas.  Ross was as good of a person as a pitcher during his time in a Rangers uniform, but the damage caused by his over usage scares me when looking at how Kela was thrown to the wolves this season. 

45- Plate appearances by Thomas Field, who was actually the Rangers’ starting second baseman for a while this season. 

44- Approximate number of fans attending the last Oakland Athletics game. 

43- Extra base hits by Elvis Andrus in 2015, including a surprising 7 homeruns.  The Rangers also played 43 games against playoff teams this season. 

42-  The total number of extra base hits Lewis Brinson had during his 64 game stint at High-A.  Brinson then bounced through AA Frisco and made a cameo in AAA Round Rock, batting .433 (SSS ALERT!).

41- Hits by Choo in the final 30 games

40- Strikeouts by Sam Freeman in 38.1 innings pitched, who could be huge in the series against the Blue Jays due to his splits vs RHH, but might get left off of the postseason roster altogether. 

39- Innings pitched by Tanner Scheppers.  I legitimately feel bad for him; the attempt to make him a starter broke him, much like it did with Feliz, Robbie Ross, and Alexi Ogando. 

38- RBI by Adrian Beltre since September 1. 

37- Age of Jon Daniels at the beginning of the season (he’s now 38), who celebrated his birthday with a Rangers off day before the start of a three game regular season series with the Blue Jays

36- Games played by Chris GImenez, who provided a lift behind the plate and a number of clutch hits from an unexpected place. 

35- Saves by Shawn Tolleson, with only two blown.  Incredible for someone who is nothing like your prototypical closer. 

34- RBI by Robinson Chirinos, who fought through injuries this season and seems to be 100% headed into the playoffs

33- Games started by Colby Lewis this season, resulting in a 17-9 record. 

32- Walks allowed by Chi Chi Gonzalez, compared to 30 K’s.  Chi Chi showed his value moving forward, but must improve control in order to become a regular member of the rotation. 

31- The jersey number of Mike Maddux, who has been absolutely superb this year, working with an ever changing staff and making the most of sub-par talent to begin the season

30- The amount of games it took Rougned Odor to get back on track at Round Rock this season. Whatever adjustment he made there was simply incredible. 

29- Beltre.  Adrian freakin’ Beltre.  I hope Beltre chooses a Rangers cap when #29 ends up in Cooperstown.  Let’s get a ring to help convince him. 

28- The age of Kyle Blanks, who I thought was going to play a large role in the Rangers plans this season.  Blanks contributed while healthy, but as is the norm for Kyle, that was not often.  Blanks finished the season on the 60 day DL after having surgery on both Achilles. 

27-  The number that former Astro Lance Berkman wore during his short, yet overwhelmingly disappointing stint with the Rangers, which ultimately lead to Nolan Ryan and JD breaking up, with Ryan returning to the Astros organization.  Berkman has been in the news again recently for a political commercial featuring his opinions, which has judgement being questioned more often than the Astros play down the stretch. 

26- Appearances by Jake Deikman, the player who seemed like a throw in additive to the Cole Hamels trade, who ended up being a stud in Texas, sporting a .203 ERA over 21.2 innings of work. 

25- Stolen bases by DeShields and Andrus, tied for the team lead. 

24- Wins by the 2015 Texas Rangers over AL teams that made the playoffs, compared to 15 losses

23- HR by Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland, tied for the team lead

22- Holds by Keone Kela, which is one higher than his age. 

21- Age of Joey Gallo. And Kela.  And Odor.  This is about more than just 2015. 

20- The age of Nomar Mazara, who I might be more excited about than any of the three listed at #20.  Many thought he would be required for a deal to get Cole Hamels, but here he is, still in the organization, hitting .358 in 20 games at the AAA level. 

19- Strikeouts by Mike Napoli this season in a Rangers uniform, as compared to 99 in Boston.  Nap found a spark after returning to Arlington, forcing himself into the lineup, even against RHP, even in left field.  Baseball is an odd game. 

18- Number of games Neftali Feliz appeared in before the Rangers brass realized he just doesn’t have it anymore. 

17- The round in which Mitch Moreland and Mike Napoli were drafted, making an excellent 1B platoon. 

16- Innings pitched by Matt Harrison in his heroic comeback before being shipped off to Philly as a minor part of the Cole Hamels trade.  Get this man a ring and a World Series share. 

15- Games started by Wandy Rodriguez. Yep. 

14- Stolen bases by Leonys Martin, with 5 CS.  Nothing went right for Leonys this season, which was magnified by the outstanding performance of Delino DeShields, but he is still an important piece moving forward due to his defense. 

13- Wins by Yovani Gallardo, who tossed 184 innings for the Rangers this season, carrying the pitching staff for the first half of the season and being the workhorse that Daniels traded for. 

12- Number of starting left fielders used by the Rangers this year.  Wow. 

11- Days of rest that the Blue Jays will have given David Price before facing the Rangers on Thursday, a move that has several writers suggesting that the Jays gave away games at the end of the season in order to face the Rangers

10- Games started by Derek Holland, who very well could be the key to the Rangers postseason success.  If good Derek is present behind Cole, this team is very hard to defeat. 

9- Innings thrown by Hamels on Sunday when the bullpen was at the point of exhaustion. 

8- Homeruns hit by Hamilton this season during his 50 games, more than Andrus, DeShields, Martin, or anyone that could have been considered a LF option

7-  Games started by Ross Detwiler, resulting in exactly 0 wins. 

6- The number of playoff appearances by the Texas Rangers before this season.  Seven is a much better number. 

5- The Rule # used to steal Delino DeShields away from the Houston Astros, who had no room for him on their roster. 

4- Earned runs given up by Sam Dyson in 31.1 IP since coming to the Rangers from Miami. 

3- Percent chance Fan Graphs gave the Rangers to make the playoffs in the preseason.

2- Innings pitched by Adam Rosales in 2015; exactly 2 more than Yu Darvish

1- Year of experience from Jeff Banister, who lead one of the most surprising turnarounds in baseball, and gets to hang an AL West banner (and hopefully more) in his first season. 

The Blue Jays Aren’t Invincible, An ALDS Preview

American League Division Series:

Texas Rangers (88-74), AL West Champs vs. Toronto Blue Jays (93-69), AL East Champs

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Aaron Vincent Elkaim

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Aaron Vincent Elkaim

It isn’t a secret that the Rangers are huge underdogs in the ALDS against Toronto, who is the World Series favorite per Bovada dot com. They own baseball’s best offense, a top-10 starter in MLB, and a legitimate home field advantage (53-28 this year). It’s a tall order asking the Rangers to win this series, but we all know this is the postseason… right? Welcome to the glorious crapshoot.

To put into perspective just how good Toronto’s offense is, let’s first look at its general body of work:

In 2015 the Blue Jays scored 891 runs (5.5 runs/game), a robust 127 more than the next-best team in MLB. That team, the Yankees, crossed home plate 764 times. The difference between Toronto and the 2nd-best team is the same as the Yankees and the Reds… who ranked 26th in MLB with 640 runs scored. 

Relatively speaking, the Rangers were no slouches compared to the rest of baseball. Texas’s offense ranked 3rd in MLB with 751 runs scored (4.64 runs/game), but even that is almost a full run per night lower than the Blue Jays on average.

As a team, over an entire season, Toronto slashed .269/.340/.457  (117 wRC+), and were tops in baseball in all italicized statistics. For reference, that’s basically equivalent to Adrian Beltre’s 2015 campaign (.287/.334/.453), give or take a few points in the two relevant offensive categories, OBP and SLG. 

From a run prevention standpoint, Toronto was 12th in MLB in ERA (3.81) and 19th in xFIP (4.12), the latter adjusted to better help us gauge the staff’s true talent, or expected ERA. In comparison, the Rangers ranked 23rd in ERA (4.25) and dead last in xFIP (4.37), but that’s also with the caveat that the rotation and bullpen look significantly different now than the first two-thirds of the season.

Even with all signs pointing towards a lot of runs being scored in this series, I’m anticipating the largest impacts to come from two starting pitchers — David Price and Cole Hamels — and each team’s respective bullpen.

Rather than a handful of 10-8 or 7-6 outcomes in these games — which is probably popular public opinion heading into Thursday — I think a more reasonable conclusion is they will end up in the 3-2 range. In the playoffs the games have a way of slowing down, and stretching out, and with a slew of hard-throwing right-handers in his bullpen, Jeff Banister will attempt to neutralize the strength of Toronto’s lineup — right-handed power — at every stop. If you thought you saw a lot of Sam Dyson and Shawn Tolleson at the end of the regular season, that was just a tuneup for what you should expect against the Blue Jays. 

As far as the Rangers offense is concerned, they have no reason to sweat David Price, who is really what stands between Texas and the ALCS in many peoples’ eyes. Although he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball and is sure to command Max Scherzer-type money in free agency this winter, Price isn’t unfamiliar to Texas. In his last five starts against the Rangers dating back to 2012 — including a complete game victory in Game 163 in ’13 — Price has allowed 16 ER on 37 hits in 31.1 IP (4.60 ERA), though with an elite 27/3 strikeout/walk ratio. The Rangers lineup is lefty-dominant so generating runs won’t be easy, but the Rangers have a decent track record of putting up crooked numbers against the former Vanderbilt product. 

The Rangers counter with Yovani Gallardo in Game One and Cole Hamels, who will likely go up against RHP Marcus Stroman, in Game Two.

I’m bad at predictions, but the Blue Jays are only 60% favorites to win the series, according to FiveThirtyEight, which isn’t enormous by any means. Beyond Price their best starter is Stroman, who’s been dominant, but he’s only had made 4 starts this year (27 IP/5 ER/20 H/18 K/6 BB). Toronto has a decided edge with its lineup, but I’ll roll with Hamels (two times), Holland, Perez and Gallardo over Price/Stroman/Estrada/Beuhrle, and call the bullpens a wash (they are both very good). 

It’s an old and it’s cliché to say that “offense wins games, defense wins championships,” but that’s what I’m banking on in the Division Series when it comes to Rangers vs. Blue Jays, if only for that’s probably the only way Texas can come out victorious. 

It isn’t a question if the Blue Jays are the best team in baseball. Their +221 run differential is 99 runs better than the next-best team in MLB (St. Louis, +122). At 93-69 they actually finished 9 wins worse than they should have according to Baseball Prospectus’s 3rd Order Winning Percentage. 

And yet… I don’t think this is a bad matchup for the Rangers. The strength of the Blue Jays comes in the form of four right-handed hitters — Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion — while Texas features what is likely to be the righty Gallardo and three lefties. Logic suggests that spells trouble for the Rangers. 

But two of those lefties, Hamels and Perez, have excellent change ups, and aren’t afraid to use them. Since Cole has been in Arlington he’s used his CH 24.6% of the time, Perez about once every five pitches (21.8%) this year. That might not be something, but it’s definitely not nothing. 

This is a 5 game series, not 7 or 9 or 155. If the Rangers are playing the best team in MLB, it benefits their odds to play the shortest series possible. When I take a step back from feeling grateful that Texas was able to pull off this miracle of a season — which I unequivocally am — I think they have a real chance in this ALDS. I think the Texas bullpen is going to be the story of the series, with Keone Kela making a name for himself, Sam Dyson and Shawn Tolleson exhausting a ton of pitches, and the Rangers scraping by as they’ve done for so much of the second half this year.

If it feels like it’s been a long time since the Rangers have been in the playoffs, it’s because it is. The last actual series they played came all the way back in the 2011 World Series; the two years that followed featured one-game coin flips that Texas came out on the wrong end of, and last season there wasn’t a game past 162. This team is built for the postseason format, and for the front office, these games are the reason for the weeks and months and years worth of gathering information on players. The Rangers might not win it, but it won’t be because they weren’t prepared and ready. 

Toronto deserves all the credit for being the best, just like Houston deserved credit for being the best in the West on paper this year, but it doesn’t make the Jays exempt from having to earn their spot in the ALCS. 

If and when it all has to end, we can say how happy we we were just to be there.

For now, let’s win this thing. 

Prediction: Rangers in 5