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Per Jon Heyman, this winter the Rangers have tried to sign 2B Rougned Odor to a long-term extension, but there is a “decent-sized gap.” 

Due to his lack of service time, Roogie won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season, and won’t be arbitration-eligible until after 2017. So the level of urgency to getting him locked up for 2021 and beyond isn’t pressing.

Not unless, of course, the Rangers feel like Odor is primed for a breakout in 2016… in which case his price could only go up from the point it’s at now — which is already more than the Rangers are comfortable spending.

Like everywhere else has mentioned, Roogie had a rough start to his 2015 campaign. Through May 8th, he slashed a gaunt .144/.252/.233 (33 wRC+) with just five extra-base hits in 103 plate appearances. And it’s entirely possible that stretch will go down as the worst 100 PA sample size of his career. 

So, yeah, the Rangers sent him to Triple-A for a month, and you know where the story goes from there. 

By the time Odor returned he was one of the toughest outs in the major league lineup: From June 17th through the end of the regular season, Odor batted .285/.329/.523 (123 wRC+) with 14 HRs, 7 3Bs and 15 2Bs, and pretty much cemented his case to be the Rangers second baseman for the next decade.

Rougned Odor turned 22 just a month ago. And like I mentioned earlier, he still has five years before he is eligible to declare free agency. 

So what kind of extension might he be seeking?

To answer, we travel all the way back to the winter of 2013 to peek at the way Martin Perez’s contract was structured, as he was at the same point in his service time when the Rangers signed him to an extension:

2014: $750K (in what would have been his 2nd pre-arb year)

2015: $1 million (in what would would have been his 3rd pre-arb year)

2016: $2.9 million 

2017: $4.4 million 

2018: $6 million team option, $2.45 million buyout

2019: $7.5 million team option, $750K buyout

2020: $9 million team option, $250K buyout

This might just look like a bunch of numbers on your computer screen, so here’s the point: By extending Perez at the time they did, the Rangers bought out his last two pre-arb years for $1.75 million, his three arbitration seasons for $13.3 million, and his first two free agency years for $18 million.

Including all options being picked up, Texas signed the 22 year-old to a 7-year, $33 million contract. It gave the pitcher immediate financial security and the Rangers a #3-type starter on the super cheap for the better part of the next decade. 

This is what the franchise is set out to accomplish with Roogie as well, only he plays a position significantly less volatile than a starter pitcher. And it’s because Odor is safer to project that he will cost more. The less the gamble, the greater the investment. 

Rougned Odor’s agent knows this, which is why the two sides have yet to come to an agreement. The danger in waiting, from the Rangers perspective, is that Odor is one big year away from moving to the tier of elite second baseman in baseball, where his next contract could be worth two or three times what he’s looking at right now. ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider required) picks Odor as one of his five breakout candidates in 2016… and if it wasn’t him then it probably would have been you, or me. After seeing Roogie break out in the second half of 2015 I’m under the impression that’s just what we’re going to expect out of him moving forward. And that’s probably the least homerific thing you’ll see me write this calendar year.

So here’s my hypothetical extension: 

2016: $1.5 million

2017: $2.5 million

2018: $4 million

2019: $6 million

2020: $8 million

2021: $10 million (team option, $3 million buyout)

2022: $11 million (team option, $1.5 million buyout)

All told, the total value of the contract with no buyouts is eight years and $56 million, which comes out to a grand total of $7 million Average Annual Value. I know that reads like a low figure, but it buys out Odor’s two pre-arb years for $4 million, his three arb years for $18 million, and his first three years of free agency for $36 million. Like most other long-term contracts given to low service time guys, it guarantees more money to the player in the short-term to save money for the team in the long-term. 

There is still a lot of time before Rougned Odor is going to be a free agent. This isn’t a now or never situation. But unless a deal gets hammered out in the next couple months, there’s a large risk that Roogie is talented enough to make 8/56 look like a bargain. 

As far as Spring Training goes, that was a pretty neat game. Some thoughts:

• Derek Holland got the start today, and it was leaps and bounds better than his last outing in the Alamodome in San Antonio. He went 5 full innings while only allowing 4 hits and a walk, with 7 strikeouts. He only needed 61 pitches to do so, and since the Rangers had a plan laid out for the pitching today, he ended up throwing more in the bullpen after his 5 innings were up. Texas will of course need Holland to be more consistent this season if they hope to repeat in the AL West, so today was a good start toward that.
   
• Ian Desmond played center field again today, and he’s got me convinced now that at some point in 2016, he’ll be switching positions with Delino DeShields. DeShields is easily the faster of the two, but Desmond once again flashed a superb arm in nailing a runner at home so easily that there was no slide attempt. While I was initially a bit taken aback by the Desmond signing, I’m coming around more and more by the day.
   
• Hanser Alberto and Pedro Ciriaco continue to each hit the ball well in their attempt to win the utility job. Honestly, at this point, I’d have a hard time picking between the two, and I don’t envy the coaches and front office for having to do so. My gut tells me Ciriaco might get the nod simply because Alberto can go back to Triple-A for awhile. Then again, I’ve been wrong before.
   
• In the end, today was about Matt Bush. I published a piece on Bush this morning, and he came out and threw 2 solid innings, only giving up a walk. His fastball touched 97, and he was able to confound hitters by coming back with offspeed offerings below 80. It’s not exactly a bold prediction, but I believe Bush will be pitching for the Rangers at the Major League level at some point in 2016. Just a good story for a guy who is attempting to get his life back together. You can disagree with him being given the opportunity to play baseball, but I simply can’t get on board with that line of thinking. The Rangers have shown a decent track record with these types of players, and it’d be a great story if this one ends up working out for both sides.
   
• Oh, and Texas won, 5-0. Not that Spring Training scores really matter.

Yesterday, I talked a little bit about one half of Texas’s shortstop equation in Elvis Andrus. I mentioned that I’m of the belief that Andrus’s contract can actually give the Rangers some flexibility moving forward. Today, I wanted to talk about the other half of that equation: Jurickson Profar.

Profar, of course, was once the top prospect in baseball. It was an unfortunate distinction in that it came during the season in which Mike Trout used a rookie campaign to take over baseball, meaning expectations for Profar immediately shot through the roof.

By the time the 2013 season was over, the front office felt comfortable enough with going forward with Profar as the everyday second baseman and traded Ian Kinsler to Detroit in exchange for Prince Fielder. Then, Profar proceeded to miss the next two seasons due to a recurring shoulder injury that eventually required surgery to finally heal properly.

Now that he’s back in swing of things, Profar is once again playing at shortstop. Rougned Odor has seemingly solidified himself as the second baseman, with some believing he’ll be the best at the position as early as this season. Furthermore, there has been some thought that the throwing angle at shortstop might be more natural for Profar.

In any case, over at the DMN site, a transcript of some audio of Rangers assistant general manager Thad Levine was posted from an appearance with our friends on the Ben & Skin Show over at 105.3. During the segment, Levine talked a bit about Profar and the expectations the organization has set out for him. Of note:

“The bat looks terrific, the game instincts are off the charts, which is the thing we always thought was going to carry him to being a great player. And defensively he’s starting to feel more comfortable out there. I think we look at it as, wherever he starts the year, he has a chance to come up and impact our team at some point this season.”

The assumption has long been that the best thing for Profar in 2016 would be to spend majority of 2016 — or at least until September call-ups — at Triple-A Round Rock to get acclimated to playing again on an everyday basis. This is the first time I’ve seen anyone from inside the Rangers organization address any sort of expectation of Profar contributing to the Major League team in 2016, and that’s interesting for several reasons.

First, it would seem to indicate that there’s a strong confidence that Jurickson’s shoulder issues are a thing of the past. Second, and perhaps more importantly, it might just signify that if Elvis Andrus struggles to once again put together a full season, there could be some playing time available.

Now perhaps I’m reading too much into it. I’ve seen the idea thrown around of perhaps throwing Profar into the outfield mix once again, but I think at this point, Texas is content with having him stick at shortstop and seeing what happens from there.

And as much of a fan of Elvis Andrus as I am, I could certainly envision a scenario where Profar having a month or two of success in Round Rock coupled with corresponding sub-replacement level production from Andrus could force the organization to make a change.

That’s not a scenario I want to see happen. Ideally, both players shine brightly at their respective levels. Then, at the end of the season, Texas can take calls on both players. If there are takers for Andrus and his contract, plus a confidence that Profar can handle the position full-time, by all means, you make the move to address some other area of weakness (maybe a catcher?). Or perhaps it’s Profar that ends up moved to merit a sexier package in return.

Either way, both players performing at a high level in 2016 is the best scenario for all involved. And if that happens, and if we’re to assume that Levine’s comments about Profar impacting the team at some point this season were 100 percent his opinion, then where is Profar making that impact?

I would imagine Texas would be hesitant to try him in any kind of super-utility role again like they did in 2013, so I’d have to believe that’s off the table. The current outfield situation may end up being even more crammed upon Josh Hamilton‘s return, and with Nomar Mazara and Lewis Brinson waiting in the wings, the outfield really doesn’t make sense anymore. We’ve already talked about second base. Profar isn’t taking time away from Adrian Beltre at third base, and I’ve never seen him mentioned as having even worked at first base.

So, with all of that said, the only thing I can draw from this is that perhaps Elvis Andrus really is being put on notice: Get it together, or be replaced, contract be damned.

But I’m probably just reading too much into this.

OK, so I’ll come right out and admit that this isn’t necessarily a popular subject among a significant number of Rangers fans. In fact, I’d imagine that the fan base is split right down the middle. About half think that Elvis Andrus should have been traded yesterday, last week, last year. The other half still see Elvis as their favorite Ranger because it’s fun to watch him play with Adrian Beltre.

It seems like at least once a day, usually more often, I see some reference to Andrus and his “terrible” or “high-priced” contract. Elvis’s performance in Game 5 of the ALDS against Toronto is what is mostly used as the proof to say, “See! I told you he shouldn’t have been traded!”

Andrus has even made it onto several lists that are to the effect of “worst contracts in baseball”. And I’ve got to say, I don’t get it.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not going the other way and proclaiming that Elvis has one of the best contracts in baseball. I just don’t think it’s necessarily a “bad” one, either. In fact, 2015 was the first year that any of the real money in the contract kicked in, paying Andrus $15 million. Prior to that, he had made $6.475 million in 2014 and $4.8 million in 2013. Those aren’t bank-breaking numbers in the game of baseball.

At the same time, $15 million isn’t necessarily cheap, either. Despite that, Elvis Andrus was a 2.1 WAR player in 2015. To put that in perspective, if we assume the general open-market price per win of $6.5 million, Elvis Andrus was worth approximately $13.65 million, give or take a little depending on the actual market. Is that really so far off from his $15 million per year contract — the maximum annual value of the deal, mind you — that he should be listed among the worst contracts in baseball?

On one hand, I get it. When a player becomes a multi-millionaire, fans want to see that player succeed at the highest level. And given his production up to the point in which he signed his contract, it appeared that the contract would be a massive bargain for Texas. However, it isn’t simply fans beating this drum; it’s also a lot of very smart people — many who are likely smarter than myself.

No one will argue that Elvis has lived up to expectations, or even the same level of production he enjoyed early in his career. Much of Elvis’s value has always been tied up in his defense, and that has dropped significantly. As recently as 2013, he put up a defensive runs saved (DRS) of 11. Since then, his cumulative DRS has been -14. He improved in 2015 on his 2014 season, but it’s still not where it needs to be.

Defensive metrics are still very much a work in progress, but it’s still not as simple as counting errors. I’m not a scout, but I do know that at the end of the 2014 season, it was reported that Elvis’s weight had gone up from 185 in his rookie season to 205. I don’t know what his weight is now, but you’d better believe 20 pounds can affect a player’s range. Again, I have no idea how much of a factor that is now.

Texas never handed Andrus a contract to be an offensive juggernaut. A career-high of 7 home runs in 2015 is probably about the most you can expect from him. Regardless, his wRC+ needs to be higher than the 78, 78, and 77 figures he has posted through the 2013-2015 seasons.

Despite all of that, even just a small bit of improvement on his 2015 campaign, and suddenly we’re talking about a player that is potentially outperforming his contract on a $/WAR basis. A few more hits. A few more plays made that the average SS doesn’t make. And maybe a stolen base or two. That can make Elvis Andrus more than worth his contract.

That may not be a popular stance, but $/WAR is one method that many front offices use in evaluating potential free-agent signings. More specifically, forecasting future performance based on past performance, age, regression analysis, and the like. And while Texas may have Jurickson Profar coming back from injury, the best thing for all parties involved is probably to have Profar spend a full season at Triple-A Round Rock getting acclimated to playing baseball every day again.

After the season, perhaps the front office can explore all options and see where things end up. But at the end of the day, that’s what Elvis Andrus’s contract gives the organization: Options. Elvis is under team control through at least 2018, and he’s able to remain in Texas through 2022 should he choose, 2023 if he activates a vesting option based on plate appearances.

If he’s performing well, it makes his contract very tradeable as early as this summer to allow Profar to step into the fold — something I believe is highly unlikely. Or, perhaps Profar can become the important trade-deadline chip. Either way, the point is that the contract Elvis Andrus has seemed like a great deal when he signed it in 2013. In reality, we’re not all that far removed from Andrus being included in virtually every rumored trade scenario and all fearing that he would hit free agency and sign with the Yankees.

The contract may not look as great today as it did then, but that doesn’t make it “garbage” either. And no matter what anyone says, a few bad plays in his Game 5 performance isn’t indicative of his future value.

The Texas Rangers open the 2016 season in less than three weeks, and for many of us, Opening Day can’t get here soon enough! Several players stepped up last season and helped the Rangers make a surprising but satisfying postseason appearance.  It’s going to take that kind of effort from a number of guys in 2016 to make another playoff run. Texas looks pretty solid on paper right now, but the games are won and lost on the field. The following is a list of five players who are key to Rangers success this season.

1. Ian Desmond

   The signing of Ian Desmond was a bit of a surprise to say the least. With Josh Hamilton‘s health uncertain as usual, Desmond is going to get a shot to play left field for the Rangers. He was an All Star in 2012, hitting 25 home runs while driving in 73 runs. His OPS was an impressive .845, and his OPS+ was 125. Since then, however, it’s been a steady decline that hopefully bottomed out in 2015. He still hit for a little power last season, but his average dipped to a career-low .233. His OPS was a paltry .674.

   For this one-year deal to work out in the Rangers favor, Desmond is going to have to finish somewhere in the middle of his 2012 and 2015 seasons at the very least. If he ends up with an OPS somewhere in the .750 range while driving in 70 or more runs, he’ll be very valuable for the Texas offense. At multiple times in 2015, the offense was very left-hand dominant in the power category. He can help balance that out.

   That being said, Desmond is also going to be playing left field to start the season. He was an infielder during his time with the Nationals, but he had plenty of defensive struggles at that position in recent years. Left field is a major question mark for the Rangers heading into the season, and whether or not he can be a capable outfielder in the majors is going to go a long way in determining how the season goes.
    

2. Derek Holland

   Derek Holland has been a tough case to figure out. He’s flashed signs of having dominant stuff with top-of-the-rotation potential. On the contrary, he’s also struggled to stay healthy and has stretches where he gives up far too many long balls. Rangers fans would obviously love to have the first option, although many would be pretty happy with a healthy version of Holland somewhere in the middle. After starting only 15 games the past two seasons combined, seeing him toe the rubber 28-30 times would be a welcome sight.

   Holland started 10 games in 2015, and he was 4-3 with an ERA of 4.91. The stat that worries me even more was the 6.3 strikeouts per 9 innings compared to 2.6 walks per 9 innings. He’s obviously not missing bats at a very high rate, and the distance between the two stats will need to be larger moving forward.

   He also gave up nearly two home runs per 9 innings a season ago, and when he’s at his best, that number is much lower. First and foremost, Holland needs to give Texas close to 30 starts. If his ERA is on the south side of 4.00, that’s a bonus. When he’s a viable starter for the Rangers, things are much more pleasant in regards to the starting rotation. That will be the case in 2016 as well.
    

3. Mitch Moreland

   Mitch Moreland had his best full season by far in 2015, and he’ll be looking to keep that going in 2016. The lefty hit .278 with 23 home runs and 85 runs batted in. The average and RBI total were career highs, while the home run total was tied with his previous career high. In addition, his WAR was 2.1 which is by far his best to date. He pretty much showed improvement across the board offensively.

   Moreland is somewhere in the middle of the pack defensively, and that makes him even more important to the Rangers. The better he performs at the plate and on the field, the more games Jeff Banister can put Prince Fielder at DH. Fielder is certainly capable of playing first base on occasion, but this team will be better with him at DH and Moreland at first base. 

   Moreland had a career year in 2015, and it was a great relief to get him through arbitration fairly smoothly. He is very capable of repeating his numbers from a year ago, but that kind of projection is probably on the high side. Nonetheless, there’s no reason to believe he won’t give Texas another 130-140 games along with 20-plus home runs and nearly 75-80 runs batted in.
    

4. Shawn Tolleson

   Shawn Tolleson came out of nowhere to become a reliable closer for the Rangers in 2015. It was a major need for the team at the time, and it allowed a number of things to be put in place elsewhere in the bullpen. He converted 35 saves in 37 chances with a 2.99 ERA. He posted career bests in WHIP (1.147), strikeouts per 9 innings (9.5), and walks per 9 innings (2.1). Numbers are important for any position, but when it comes to closers the 35 out of 37 is the stat that means the most. They have a job to finish out games, and Tolleson did it well.

   It remains to be seen whether or not Tolleson is the long-term plan as closer for the Rangers, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t be the man again in 2016. His presence at the end of the bullpen allows Jeff Banister a lot of flexibility throughout a game. It gives the manager the option to continue using the three-headed monster of Sam Dyson, Jake Diekman, and Keone Kela to hold things together until the 9th inning. There aren’t many teams with a better bullpen than the Rangers, and the guy at the end of it is a big reason for that.
    

5. Chi Chi Gonzalez 

   Chi Chi Gonzalez had a pretty quick rise to the big leagues, and while the results have been mixed, there’s a lot of excitement when it comes to his future. He started off really well last season before going through a rough patch on occasion before being sent back down to the minors. He returned to the Rangers late in the season with another batch of mixed results. His walks per 9 innings (4.3) were higher than his strikeouts per 9 innings (4.0), and that’s never going to be a plus. It’s a definite concern, but he’s looked pretty good so far this spring.

   Chi Chi is going to get every opportunity to at least be in the starting rotation to start the season. Yu Darvish‘s return date isn’t known yet, but he’ll at least be out the first month or so. That will give Gonzalez several starts to show if he’s ready to stay in the big leagues or not.

   For Rangers fans, he’s going to be a huge key to this year’s team. He’ll almost surely be in the rotation to start the season, and the best-case scenario is that he’s a dominant piece of the rotation all season. If Darvish returns and he’s the odd-man out, he’ll still be a very valuable piece when others need a break or miss time due to injury. In addition, he could end up being a very important contributor as a long reliever if he isn’t used as a starter.