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The Rangers Trail 1-0

Well, that was less than ideal. Some thoughts:

  • Cole Hamels just wasn’t very good today. His final line of 7 runs (6 earned) on 6 hits and 3 walks doesn’t quite do it justice. He didn’t appear to be comfortable on the mound, and there were moments that I noticed he was taking additional time between pitches to try to gather something inside himself.
     
  • Walks aside, Cole’s biggest problem was an inability to put hitters away. He lacked any sort of strikeout pitch, with a high likelihood that it was related to his poor fastball command. There wasn’t a sense that Cole had a feel for placing the ball where he wanted it, and the end result was often that he’d get two strike on hitters, only for them to be able to sit on a pitch over the heart of the zone.
     
  • The offense and defense didn’t do much to help today, either. Ian Desmond, in particular, had what was a back-breaking play that he should have made in center field on what was ruled a bases-clearing triple by Troy Tulowitzki. The ball was hit deep, but not so deep that the wall should have come into play. Desmond simply… lost it somehow. And instead of being down 2-0 with the inning over and the Rangers still within striking distance, it was 5-0, and the life just left the entire ballpark.
     
  • And really, I have to imagine that the early deficit had an effect on the offensive approach. For his part, prior to having a cushioned lead, Marco Estrada was already having success in throwing first pitch strikes and inducing swings on his changeup. Being down certainly didn’t aid Texas in attempting to adjust, and other than two Elvis Andrus hits and an Adrian Beltre infield single — one in which Estrada himself should have been covering first for the out — the offense didn’t really get much going.
     
  • Jumping back to Cole Hamels for a moment: He didn’t seem to be following through on his delivery today — whether that’s because he just wasn’t or couldn’t remains to be seen — which had me thinking aloud that he might be hurt. Of course, we’re not going to hear much about it now, but recent trends would seem to back that up. Momentum — or lack thereof — don’t generally have much to do with postseason success or failure. In Hamels’s case, I almost wonder if the writing hasn’t been on the wall. As you may remember, Colby Lewis required knee surgery after the 2015 season. It wouldn’t surprise me too much to find out something similar about Cole Hamels, and it would go a long way toward explaining his erratic and often downward-trending starts as of late. From August 30 to the end of the season, he put up an ERA of 6.75, so today’s start wasn’t exactly an outlier when looking at recent trends.
     
  • The assumption had long been that starting Cole in Game 1 would allow Texas to use him again on short rest in Game 4 if necessary. Of course, we know now that for Texas to win this series, Game 4 will be necessary. The idea had been that you’d want to avoid pushing Darvish to start on short rest in Game 4, but with a travel day, Darvish could still go on regular rest for Game 5. I’m not so sure at this point that you don’t go ahead and pitch Martin Perez and take what you get. Something just isn’t right with Cole Hamels. Perhaps it’s an issue that comes and goes, but today it came.
     
  • All told, today’s events were what worried me heading into this series, and why I was surprised the Rangers didn’t end up electing to use the 8-man bullpen. With starts from Colby Lewis, Martin Perez, and after what we saw from Hamels today, it would seem beneficial to have as many arms available as possible. It’s too late now, but it was a thought I had when rosters were announced this morning, and it’s one that’s probably going to bother me to the end of this thing.
     
  • About Ian Desmond. He has to make that catch in center field. Barring that, I’m just not sure he merits a starting spot in a playoff series. He hit one ball somewhat hard today, but since July 22, hasn’t hit much more than a pinata. It wouldn’t be a popular move, but I still wonder if having Mazara in LF, Gomez in CF, and Choo/Beltran in RF isn’t the best combination. Sure, you lose some speed on the bases and a little bit of range on the left side of the outfield, but even as poorly as Nomar Mazara has hit, his bat has been leaps and bounds better than Desmond’s over recent stretches. It won’t happen, but it’s something that should at least be considered.
     
  • All told, the Rangers need Yu Darvish to go out tomorrow and light it up. And for the bats to, hopefully, show better plate discipline, and therefore results. Should Texas lose Game 2, that’s an awfully tough hill to climb, and one I’d rather not have to face.

Rangers-Jays: The Rematch

Back on May 15, after Rougned Odor‘s right hook staggered Jose Bautista and ignited a benches-clearing brawl in Arlington, there was no reason to believe that we’d be here today.

Yes, I think many of us were hoping — maybe even expecting — the Rangers to contend for another AL West title. And perhaps Toronto making the postseason could have been expected as well. And yet, to actually predict that — after all that’s happened over the past year to create bad blood between the teams — the two clubs would actually face one another in a playoff series, at least to me, would have been an exercise in pure guessing.

Nearly five full months later, here we are. Toronto, the team that survived the toughest division in baseball and a win-or-go-home Wild Card game. Texas, the team that defied all expectations en route to winning the AL West going away and, in the process, setting a record for winning percentage in one-run games (.766).

The numbers would say that Texas should be a .500 ball club. That record in one-run games was the difference. Is it sustainable? Probably not. But that’s a problem for next year. It has nothing to do with the playoffs.

Let me say that again: Run differential has no bearing on this playoff series, or any series that might come after.

So while, on paper, Toronto may actually be the better team in everything but winning percentage, there’s a very real chance that the Rangers could tap into something special and go on a run. They did it in 2010. And again in 2011.

If you asked me to pick a catalyst with which to pin the forthcoming success or failure on, I’d tell you it’s Cole Hamels.

Hamels saw his walk rate reach a career high in 2016, and his home run rate was up from 2015. His groundball rate was up, finding him relying more often on his defense to make plays. As anyone who has watched Martin Perez pitch knows, sometimes that’s not a repeatable skill, at least from a pitcher’s perspective.

He’s still managed nine games in 2016 in which he amassed a pitcher game score of 70 or higher. Cole Hamels is at his best, as are most pitchers, when he’s striking hitters out and not walking them.

The Blue Jays like to swing the bat. The way Cole Hamels pitches — especially considering he has the opportunity to pitch twice in the series — may very well determine who moves on to the ALCS.

Before everything gets started, it’s important to remember that the journey is sometimes more important than the destination. No matter how things end, it’s been a fun, frustrating, entertaining, energetic season. And that counts for something, even if — unlike prior to 1969 — they don’t give out American League Championship rings to the team with the best record.

Your Texas Rangers defied all projections and forecasting systems to get here. And there’s no reason to believe they can’t continue to surprise us all. Go Rangers!

Odds 2.0

A little over a week ago, I visited some playoff odds and talked about the W-L records that would need to happen in order to make the AL West competitive again.

Over a week later, and the Seattle Mariners have gained… a whole half-game on Texas in the standings. Meanwhile, Houston has actually dropped another half-game.

The deeper we get into August, the more likely it becomes that Texas will be representing the AL West as division champs in the ALDS. So it’s in that frame of mind that I wanted to revisit where things stand.

Today, Texas sits at 71-50, and still on pace for 95 wins by the end of this thing. At the risk of counting chickens before they hatch, stick a fork in Houston. They’re done.

At 9 games back in the division, it’s just not happening. Even if Texas finished out the regular season slate by going 19-22 to hit 90 wins, it would take a 29-14 finish by Houston to accomplish that same record. They also play Seattle six more times, so barring a sweep there, they’ll still find themselves looking up from the third slot in the AL West standings.

Speaking of Seattle, they’ll need to finish 27-17 in order to reach 90 wins. They still play Texas seven times. Even if they manage to go 4-3 in those games, or if we’re feeling really bullish on their chances of going 5-2 in them, that would leave them needing to go 23-21 or 22-22 with their remaining slate. Not impossible, but with six games also against Houston, it’s a bit tougher.

Of course, this all assumes that Texas drops off from their current pace, and significantly. If Texas continues close to this pace and/or wins the majority of the head-to-head games against Seattle, it’s game over in the AL West. As it is, over at FanGraphs, the projected rest-of-season standings have Texas finishing out their schedule at 21-20, good for 92 wins. Seattle would need to finish 29-15 to get there and force even a one-game tiebreaker.

And that’s probably why the playoff odds have Texas at 87.1% to win the division. We can talk about the record in one-run games (27-8), or how the run differential doesn’t look so great. And if we were talking about the same exact roster as before the trade deadline, it’d be a perfect comparison. However, most of 2016’s run differential doesn’t factor in the contributions Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Lucroy are already making.

It’s hard to say for sure, but Martin Perez throwing his changeup — the pitch that put him on the prospect radar — 40 times on Monday evening would seem to have at least something to do with Jonathan Lucroy’s influence behind the plate. And if you haven’t seen his plate approach, or the way Carlos Beltran has impacted the offense — his game-tying single on Tuesday evening as an example — then it’s hard to truly appreciate that an offense that already ranks as 4th in the AL based on run production might actually be better than that.

Beyond that, Yu Darvish looks healthy again. Cole Hamels is, well, Cole Hamels. And if any combination of Martin Perez, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, etc. can produce in the rotation, that run differential can actually improve before season’s end.

So while the division race may not technically be over, if I’m a fan of Seattle or Houston, I’m not exactly feeling confident that my team can do what Texas did last season and erase a large deficit to claim the division crown.

Abdication

Throughout history, there have been numerous cases when the heir apparent to the throne has suddenly, and often unexpectedly, stepped down, making an opening for a younger royal to ascend to glory.

As of today, another Prince will announce he is stepping aside, making room for others to find glory in his stead.  

After 12 years in the bigs, Prince Fielder will announce today that he has taken his final at bat, stepping aside from the game he loves after being declared medically disabled following his second neck fusion surgery.  Fielder will not officially retire from the game, but rather go on the 60 day disabled list where he can continue to collect his salary while recovering from another difficult surgery.  

As a fan of baseball, this makes me very sad.  As someone who often criticized Prince’s play as a Ranger, I can’t help but feel genuine empathy and sorrow for Prince Fielder, the human.  

For all of you who are reacting to this with sentiments of “Good”, “he was a bum anyway”, or thinking that Jon Daniels should feel your wrath as a fan for this; stop.  Take a moment to remember that this is an actual person, a person who loved the game, a person who, often unwisely, played through large degrees of pain to attempt to help your favorite team.  Take a moment to remember that inside of that number 84 jersey, there was more than just numbers and dollar signs.  

As a fan of baseball, it’s a sad thing to see a player who had such potential decline so rapidly due to medical issues.  Early in his career, Prince was an absolute force, a joy to watch, and the biggest draw to some mediocre at best Milwaukee teams.  50 homeruns in 2007.  141 RBI in 2009. 114 walks in 2010.  32 intentional walks in 2011. Played 809 of 810 possible games 2009-2013.  

Yet, as Texas Rangers fans, we only saw a shell of the player Prince once was.  

This is sad on many levels.  

We will remember Prince Fielder in Arlington as a disappointment, as someone who didn’t live up to his billing, and as someone who was not even replacement level.  

We will think about pop ups and balls rolled over on to the right side.

We will think about the what could have been with Ian Kinsler.

We will think about that contract, especially with the amount of dead money remaining (after insurance and the partial payment by the Tigers, Texas will still owe him $9 million a year through 2020).

While these thoughts could be construed as unfair, they are unfortunately a part of the tough reality of the baseball business.  Sometimes, no matter how great the player, things just don’t work out.  

However, as unfortunate as the Rangers were to never see the true All Star caliber player that Prince once was, the players in the clubhouse were blessed to learn from him, to see his desire, and to experience his leadership first hand as he fought to be on the field every single day.  On top of that, the only thing that topped his 80 grade power on the field was his 80 grade skills as a parent off of it.  For not just those who know him personally, but also to the casual observer, it became impossible to prevent yourself from smiling while watching Prince interact with his sons, or to even see his sons interact with others.  

I hurt for Prince Fielder.  I wish with all of my heart that things would have been different, I wish that the Rangers were not hamstrung with his contract, I wish that Texas could have gotten more value from his time here.  But at the same time, I am happy that Prince was able to instill life lessons on the Texas Rangers dugout, and I am even happier than now he has more time to teach those lessons to his own sons, using the lessons he learned from his own childhood to raise two promising young men.  

Now the DH spot is being left up to others, with Beltran getting the majority of the ABs going forward this year, and providing a logical lineup destination for Choo and Gallo moving forward.  As the Prince abdicates his throne, the possibilities for this lineup provide more potential than many of us ever imagined, and those who are filling the spot originally intended for Fielder have only one thing on their minds:

Providing a lavish gift to royalty.  

It’s time.  Go win a ring for the fallen Prince.